Probabilistic match forecasting
Any two nations.
One calibrated forecast.
An ensemble of gradient-boosted trees and neural networks, trained on every international since 1872 and calibrated against held-out seasons. No vibes — probabilities.
World Cup 2026 predictor — current title picks
Pitchsense simulates the entire 2026 FIFA World Cup 100,000 times with a calibrated machine-learning model trained on over 49,000 international matches. Based on the latest run, these are the model's leading contenders to win the tournament:
Full championship odds for all 48 teams are on the World Cup 2026 page. Probabilities update as the model is re-run and are provided for information only — not betting advice.
How the Pitchsense predictor works
For any international fixture, Pitchsense returns calibrated win, draw and loss probabilities, expected goals for each side, the most likely exact scorelines, and the factors driving the forecast. Predictions come from an ensemble of XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost and a neural network, with scorelines modelled by a Dixon-Coles double-Poisson and probabilities calibrated on held-out seasons.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the 2026 World Cup?
The model's current leading title contenders are listed above, with full probabilities for all 48 teams on the World Cup page. The single most likely champion still wins only a minority of simulations — international football is high-variance.
Is Pitchsense free?
Win/draw/loss probabilities and the World Cup title odds are free. Full insights (expected goals, exact-score grids, model drivers) and the news section unlock with a one-time $5 payment — no account required.
Is this betting advice?
No. Pitchsense gives statistical estimates for information only, not betting advice. You must be 18+ and follow your local laws.